LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF EXTRAORDINARY SPRING FLOODS BY СOMMENSURABILITY METHOD ON THE DNIPRO RIVER NEAR THE KYIV CITY, UKRAINE

Abstract

The Kyiv city is the capital of Ukraine, as well as its major administrative and industrial center. Kyiv is located in the middle reaches of the Dnipro River which is the largest river in Ukraine. In the past, the Kyiv city suffered from dangerous spring floods. Consequently, long-term forecasting of spring floods on the Dnipro River near Kyiv has an important scientific and practical significance. Existing quantitative methods for such forecasting are of limited forecast lead time and require many input hydrometeorological data. In the paper the information method Weng Wen-Bo applied, which is a qualitative forecasting method. The use such method allows to determine the periods and specific years in which the following extraordinary spring floods on the Dnipro River near Kyiv can occur.