Patterns and forecast of long-term cyclical fluctuations of the water runoff of Ukrainian Carpathians rivers
Keywords:river, water runoff, random function, cyclicity, spatial synchrony, water content phase, correlogram, water content cycle, predictive estimation.
Knowledge of the cyclicity features in the fluctuations of river runoff, duration and nature of the low-water and high-water period interchange in one or other river basins, and especially their prediction provides invaluable assistance in the planning and sound management of the water resources, improving the operational efficiency of the hydropower, reclamation and other water facilities . Currently, the interest in the study of long-term cyclical fluctuations in the river runoff, as well as patterns of fluctuations of its underlying factor highly increased due to their use in the long-term forecasts.
Time series of annual water runoff for basins of Tisza, Dniester and Prut rivers were estimated with the use of mathematical tools, methodological framework of which is based on a statistical means of summarizing, systemization of the input data, evaluation methods of time random sets of the runoff characteristics, methods of analysis of the time series variability and manifestation of their structure.
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