Land Use and Land Cover Change in East Java Indonesia from 1972 to 2021: Learning from Landsat

Abstract

This study analyses land use and land cover (LULC) changes during the last five decades (1970–2021) in East Java Province, Indonesia. The changes are analysed by comparing four maps interpreted from Landsat images (MSS 1972, TM 1997, OLI 2013, and OLI 2021). The main research procedures consist of (1) data collection, (2) field survey, (3) image classification, and (4) LULC change interpretation. The classification uses the maximum likelihood algorithm, achieving an overall kappa accuracy of > 75%. The classification produces eight classes, i.e., built-up land (BU), heterogeneous agricultural land (HAL), bare soil (BS), paddy fields (PF), open water (OW), vegetation (VG), shrubland (SH), and wetlands (WL). The analysis shows a significant shift in land use from 1972 to 2021, with HAL declining by 46%, SH by 91%, and BS by 88%. In contrast, PF has increased by 105%, VG (forest and plantation) by 64%, and built-up areas by a remarkable 366%. These changes show a significant shift from dryland agriculture, shrublands, and barren lands to irrigated regions, vegetated areas, and urban growth. Furthermore, there are increases in water bodies due to the construction of several reservoirs to support water availability. In coastal regions, the development of inland aquaculture leads to a proliferation of wetlands (salt evaporation ponds, fish ponds, and rice-fish integrated farming).