Coastal Vulnerability Assessment from Rabat to Tangier along Morocco’s Northern Atlantic Coast

Abstract

Coastal zones are increasingly threatened by the compounded effects of climate change, particularly sea level rise, extreme wave events, and shoreline erosion. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical vulnerability of Morocco’s northern Atlantic coast, a region marked by low-lying terrain, fragile estuarine ecosystems, and intense anthropogenic pressure. Using multitemporal Landsat imagery (1990–2023), Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), and eight environmental indicators—including sea level rise, wave height, elevation, slope, and coastal geomorphology—we applied a multi-criteria Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to generate a coastal vulnerability index (CVI). Results show that shoreline erosion rates reach up to 10 mm/year in several locations, with severe retreat observed near Rabat, Moulay Bousselham, and Assilah. Estuarine areas such as Bouregreg, Sebou, Lokkous, and Tahaddart emerge as critical vulnerability hotspots due to their geomorphological sensitivity and exposure to hydrodynamic forces. These findings underscore the urgent need for integrative coastal zone management strategies, combining nature-based solutions and engineered infrastructure to enhance the resilience of socio-ecological systems along the Moroccan coastline.